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En ce début d’année, le bon goût commande de ne pas sacrifier à certaines traditions : pas de bonnes résolutions (elles sont rarement tenues), pas de pronostics hardis (ils sont presque toujours démentis). Contentons-nous de savourer cet adieu à 2016, cette année sombre et sanglante qui, de surcroît, a eu le mauvais goût de décimer héroïnes et héros de notre prime adolescence. On la quitte soulagé, donc, mais sans pour autant entrer dans la suivante avec trop d’illusions. Il faudrait faire notre cette devise librement inspirée d’un titre d’Alain Badiou : « 2016, pire que prévu. 2017 : prévoir le pire ».

Quitter l’année sans regret, donc. En avoir quand même un ou deux dans sa besace. Par exemple, comme de nombreux Français, celui de voir partir le Président Obama. Je devine déjà le sourire un rien condescendant des pourfendeurs du politiquement correct ou des tenants de la realpolitik. Je sais qu’il est de bon ton, depuis quelques mois, de railler celui qu’on a adoré aimer. De gloser sur cette dichotomie entre l’homme charismatique et brillant, et le Président prétendument faible et pusillanime. De moquer celui qui serait en fait le prototype du dirigeant post-politique, une pure créature de divertissement amoureux de lui-même et de son image, soutenu par Hollywood et les bobos des métropoles, mais détesté par les red necks et l’Amérique périphérique (en oubliant, au passage, qu’Obama avait, à deux reprises, obtenu les suffrages des ouvriers). Bref, un chef d’Etat trop smart et trop cool pour être honnête. Hésitant et hasardeux sur le terrain international, peu efficace sur le plan intérieur.

Tout cela mériterait d’être sacrément relativisé. D’abord parce que, face à un congrès hostile (le fameux « divided governement »), Obama est parvenu à faire passer des réformes décisives, comme l’extension de la protection sociale à plus de 20 millions de pauvres. Ensuite parce qu’on a trop vite oublié sa détermination face à la crise, son interventionnisme économique (allant jusqu’à une nationalisation pragmatique), qui lui a permis de sauver une partie de l’industrie américaine et de faire baisser le chômage. On retient l’échec syrien, l’indifférence envers l’Europe (l’Asie lui a été préférée), mais il restera la restauration des relations avec Cuba et la main tendue à l’Iran.

Bien sûr, en huit ans, il y a eu des erreurs, des échecs : il n’est pas parvenu à apaiser les tensions raciales, à venir à bout de cette folie des armes, à attaquer durablement les inégalités. Obama a beaucoup déçu : c’est la malédiction de ceux dont on attendait trop (même si l’on connaît des cas où déçoivent ceux dont pourtant on n’attendait rien). Mais on fait le pari que l’histoire lui rendra justice, et pas seulement en raison de son comportement personnel, qui fut toujours digne.

Musée des horreurs. Le pire n’est pas certain, mais il est possible. Qu’on en juge à la composition du gouvernement Trump. Un vrai musée des horreurs. Un mélange déconcertant de milliardaires, de militaires, de réactionnaires patentés, de climatosceptiques décomplexés. Qu’on se comprenne bien : que Trump, novice en politique, ne choisisse pas des politiciens de carrière, que sa future administration compte très peu d’élus, qu’il fasse appel à des profils atypiques, cela n’a rien de choquant. Après tout, c’est un pari qui en vaut un autre.

Donald Trump se voulait le candidat du peuple : son équipe, c’est le nec plus ultra de la ploutocratie

Non, ce qui frappe à première vue, c’est le poids exorbitant des hommes et des femmes d’argent. A la Maison Blanche comme au gouvernement. Le secrétaire au Trésor issu de Goldman Sachs, tout comme d’ailleurs le directeur du conseil national économique. Le PDG d’Exxon mobile comme secrétaire d’Etat, le directeur général d’un immense groupe de restauration rapide (par ailleurs violemment opposé aux syndicats, et hostile par principe à toute négociation salariale) comme secrétaire d’Etat au Travail.

Trump se voulait le candidat du peuple : son équipe, c’est le nec plus ultra de la ploutocratie. Au pays du capitalisme, ce lien étroit entre le monde de l’argent et celui de la politique n’a évidemment rien de nouveau. Les débauches de fric pour la primaire, le coût exorbitant de la campagne présidentielle (on parle de plusieurs milliards de dollars), celui de la cérémonie d’investiture (un peu moins de 200 millions !), tout cela est connu et n’émeut plus grand monde, à l’exception d’un Bernie Sanders qui dénonça, à juste titre, cette effarante évolution.

Fantasme postdémocratique. Mais là, un cap est franchi, au point qu’on peut redouter une forme de privatisation du pouvoir qui sonne comme un fantasme postdémocratique. Quand le milieu des affaires (au sens large, puisqu’il faut y inclure le funeste lobby militaro industriel) investit à ce point le gouvernement fédéral, seuls les naïfs, sensibles aux arguments selon lesquels la richesse prémunit contre la tentation du conflit d’intérêts et la pratique du business inspire forcément une politique économique intelligente, ne voient pas les risques.

Prévoir le pire : certains ne s’y résolvent pas. Il y a même d’indécrottables optimistes pour qui la situation politique aux Etats-Unis est riche de promesses. A la télévision, j’ai aperçu l’autre jour un démographe que j’aime beaucoup qui voyait dans l’élection de Trump le signe rassérénant de la maturité politique des Américains. Une sorte d’heureuse surprise (avec le sens de la provocation qui le caractérise, Todd va jusqu’à parler de « rêve marxiste »), puisqu’elle inaugurerait une nouvelle ère. Celle des protections, après de décennies de néolibéralisme et de libre-échange généralisé qui ont contribué à un vertigineux creusement des inégalités. Celle de la décrispation internationale aussi, avec la prédilection pour l’isolationnisme et la volonté de normalisation des relations avec la Russie.

La récente décision de Ford et de Carrier de ne pas délocaliser leurs usines apporte de l’eau au moulin de ceux qui cherchent à dédramatiser l’arrivée de Trump à la Maison Blanche. Entre deux tweets véhéments, le Président élu s’est d’ailleurs (fallacieusement) attribué le mérite de ce revirement. Il en faudra plus pour nous rassurer.

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